In God we trust. All others must bring data.
—Robert W. Hayden
After the crazy Indy and Miami game, I'm out a little faster with the stats for Week 2. Thanks to everyone for reading these. For those that want to review the rational for why I keep track of these four stats, check out the Introduction (not perfect, but useful). In short, there is a very high correlation between winning the battle of turnovers, time of possession, third down efficiency, and field possession. By far, the most important battle is turnovers, followed by field position.
Continue reading "The Dude Abides: The Stats That Don’t Lie, Week 2"
Jail House (Raider) Rock - Lebowskibronco
The warden threw a party in the county jail.
The Black Hole was there and they began to wail.
The Hutt was jumpin' and the joint began to swing.
You should've heard those knocked out Raider Fans sing.
Sunday's game was a coming out party of sorts for Elvis Dumervil. the 5'11", 248 lb outside linebacker for the Denver Broncos. "Doom" was an undersized defensive end for the past two seasons. While his production at that position was nothing to ignore, Dumervil wasn't able to fend off the tackles, shed the blocks and bring down the bball carrier in the running game. He was a sack master, but tended to be a one-trick pony. He has incredibly long arns, though, and Josh McDaniels and Mike Nolan decided to win the game by changing the rules. Doom was going to become an outside linebacker, dropping into coverage as needed, sealing the edge agsinst rushers and always, to his delight, getting a chance to chase down quarterbacks.
20 points to ponder...
1. They didn't do enough with the front 7
2. They've got too many running backs
3. Orton can't play this game
4. The offense will have to keep us in the games.
5. We can't score without Brandon Marshall
Last week I was guilty while watching the Broncos and Bengals. While I hadn't descended into the abyss that is being a Raider fan, I made a pair of very silly mistakes:
I made snap judgements on both Champ Bailey and Brandon Marshall.
And my evidence? A few plays. For Bailey, it was one play in which he cheated to the inside on a deep out (level 3) run by Chad Ochocinco. Yes, Ocho beat him on the play (not badly). But it happened to be the only play in the entire game that Bailey got beat. The only damn play! But, of course, when you are caught up with the emotion of the game, you tend to make snap judgements like this that are not normally in your character.
Continue reading "The Dude Abides: Spotlight on Champ Bailey and Brandon Marshall"
Happy Saturday, Broncos fans, and other distinguished guests. I said I would have something up this weekend, and I do. Since Hoosierteacher runs Chalk Talk on Fridays, I think I am going to regularly run this feature on Saturdays. Please look for it if you like it. I mentioned in ST&NO that I have been having technical difficulties with this project. Unfortunately, my Madden footage came through in black and white for some reason this week, and I didn't realize it until last night. Last week, the Pinnacle rendering software was freezing up; so, I guess this is better. At least I got SOME video. I will work on figuring out the problem for next week.
Continue reading "Lighting Up The Scoreboard: Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos"
I never keep a scorecard or the batting averages. I hate statistics. What I got to know, I keep in my head.
----Dizzy Dean
There are some stats that are meaningful, and there are some that ain't (the blood alcohol content of a Raider fan, for instance).
I'd like to bring you each week the stats that matter. These are the stats that don't lie. These aren't your QB ratings or your road/dome winning percentages. No way.
Continue reading "The Dude Abides: The Stats That Don’t Lie, Introduction"
Statistics are like women; mirrors of purest virtue and truth, or like whores to use as one pleases.
---Theodor Billroth
There were 16 games played in Week 1. Here's the big picture with respect to Turnovers, Time of Possession, 3rd Down Efficiency, and Field Position:
Continue reading "The Dude Abides: The Stats That Don’t Lie, Week 1"
Happy Tuesday, friends. It's a happy week in Broncoland, hopefully one of many to come this season. There was some good, some bad, some lucky, and some spectacular on Sunday. We'll discuss it all, like we always do, and we won't apologize for winning, because a win is a win. Ready.... BEGIN!!!
Continue reading "Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations"
"It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat." -- Teddy Roosevelt at the Sorbonne, Paris, April 23, 1910
Those who watched Brian Dawkins exhorting the Denver Broncos on the sideline before the game got a brief glimpse into one of the best reasons that the Broncos defense on Sunday looked anything but similar to the group of lost travelers that inhabited Broncos uniforms during the last 5 games of 2008. Dawkins screamed, cajoled, entreated and demanded from them their own best efforts. He waved his arms, and slapped his hands against his own helmet in a berserker's rage. They would take the game into their own hands. Nothing else would do, no other outcome was acceptable and in his mind it was clear that he would never, ever, under any circumstances permit the team to give up. The irony of the day was rich. By never giving up, the rote formality of a second receiver following the play in case of a tipped ball was the difference between winning and losing. Sometimes, a refusal to surrender can create victory, regardless of circumstances.
