The Heyward-Bey Assault Index

One statement you hear frequently from fans and from the media is that certain quarterbacks are victims of bad receivers who drop a lot of passes.   The statement was made about Kyle Orton during the first three games of 2009.  It's also a constant mantra of Chicago fans this year with Jay Cutler.   The conventional thinking is that if only Jay's receivers could hold onto the ball, the Bears would be a playoff team.

But which quarterbacks in the NFL really are the victim?  And which QBs are just playing one on TV?

For the answer to this question, I'd like to introduce you to a fun little stat called the Heyward-Bey Assault Index.

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Mitch Berger…he’s got a “good personality”

Sometimes the hot girl at the bar is only hot because she's wearing a lot of makeup and the lights are dimmed low.  And while she looks great now, you find out later it was all show, and perhaps you just had a little too much to drink.

Her friend, on the other hand, is only slightly above-average.  She falls into the "good personality" category.  But you know she's the kind of girl you could bring home to momma. 

Which one should you choose?  

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Tales: Who is Kyle Orton?


Things change. In the case of the Broncos, the changes have come fast and have shaken people up. From the moment that Pat Bowlen announced that he'd fired Mike Shanahan, most of our preconceptions about this team have been thrown into the fire. What remains is different from anything we expected about this offseason.

Topping the list has been the situation that resulted in the Cutler trade. Chris Simms was brought in as a highly-paid backup and will now compete for a starting job. Kyle Orton was a rumor and a name that crossed some website - now he's a household name in Denver, and fans debate his background and skill-set with fervor. And there is still the specter of Jay Cutler and what he was able, and not able, to accomplish last season.

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The Dude Abides: It’s Charger limerick time…again

Divisional opponents inspire hate.  And mockery.  So let round two of the Charger Limericks begin!

Here are five that I created.  Please feel free to make up your own.   And Chargers' fans, please participate if you have the inclination (or the intelligence).  With the beach and the surfing, one wonders if Chargers' fans can count syllables.

At the end of the season, I'll do a post with the top 10 limericks of the season for everyone to vote on.

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The Dude Abides: The Stats That Don’t Lie, Week 10

I can no longer sit back and allow a stats infiltration, a stats indoctrination, a stats subversion, and the international stats conspiracy to sap and impurify all of our precious bodily fluids. --General Jack D. Ripper

Last week another disaster movie, 2012, opened across the USA. This coincided with Week 10 of the NFL season. We were reminded of three important things:

  1. Do not ignore ancient warnings (apparently, the world ends)
  2. Don't give Peyton Manning a short field (apparently, the game ends)
  3. Jay Cutler's arm is a Mayan calendar (apparently, the Bears end)

The Denver Broncos have thus far avoided complete catastrophe, sitting at 6-3. But another loss, and you should probably head to the basement with all of your canned goods, bottled water, and flashlight batteries.

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Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Happy Tuesday, friends, and welcome to another edition of Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations.  Here we are again, with another loss to contend with.  This one is worse than the last two, because this one looked like a sure victory when we were marking off W's and L's on the schedule.  Of course, if Kyle Orton didn't get hurt, it probably is a W, and the Broncos are still sitting on a 1-game lead over the Chargers.  Since that's not the way it played out, we have to do the other thing.

We'll get into the details, from soup to chocolate cake, and make some sense of all this, because that's what we do here.  We'll explore what happened, we'll find some things to feel positive about, and we'll have some fun.  Out of the echo chamber, and into the fire, y'all.  Ready..... BEGIN!!!!

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Why history won’t have a way of repeating itself with the 2009 Denver Broncos

Note:  This post is a joint collaboration between Douglas Lee and myself. You can't gather this much data in such a short amount of time by yourself.  So hats off to the guy that not only brings us "Horse Tracks" everyday, but gave me the very idea for this post.  

Now that the Broncos, Captain McDaniels, and First Mate Orton are sailing through some rough seas (a 2-game losing streak), you knew it was bound to happen.


This shouldn't surprise you.  Perhaps you should be more surprised it took so long, given the unexpected sinking of the 2008 season, in which the Broncos drowned themselves after holding a 3-game lead through 14 weeks.

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Broncos Thoughts and Musings: The art of magical thinking

I have always believed in magic.

From the promise of sunrise to the infinite painted beauty of sunset, our world is filled with magic. A child's smile, the scents in the air after a soft rain, a lover's touch, the mountains' beauty and an infinite number of other phenomena can be understandably labeled as 'magical'. Magic plays with us in our daily lives, often unseen, never far from the moment.

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Broncos Thoughts and Musings: Redskins Week

Another week in the NFL, and the Broncos didn't win this time, either. The earth remains in orbit, and the stock market didn't crash (again). Once again, some of the fan base is breaking its ankles in their haste to jump back off the bandwagon. Many of them will climb over people's heads to jump back on next week, too. It's the way this season is going. 

One nice thing about getting older is getting a longer perspective on things. Patience, like age, can be a useful thing. You tend to lose the idea that the immediate is as daunting as emotions want to paint. You can, if you're lucky, learn that experiencing more wins than losses is actually enjoyable. You lose some of the urge to demand constant perfection of the world. You realize that your will never manifest that yourself, and you recognize that trying to require it of those around you makes you - and them - miserable. It's a rigged game.

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The Dude Abides: The Stats That Don’t Lie, Week 9

"So including last night that's three Stats That Don't Lie incidents that didn't kill you.  Pain, or damage don't end the world, or despair, or beatings.  The world ends when you're dead.  Until then, you got more punishment in store.  Stand it like a man...and give some back."

--Al Swearengen

Week 9 of the NFL.  Every team has now played half of its schedule.  We are beginning to see which teams are looking to give out the beatings on a regular basis (New Orleans), which teams are looking to take the beatings on a regular basis (Detroit), and which teams are just looking for Tim Tebow.

The Denver Broncos?  They took another punch to the face this week, but with a 6-2 record, let's just say, I wouldn't want to find myself in a back alley with Brian Dawkins.

Welcome once again to The Stats That Don't Lie for Week 9.  These are the adamantium claws of stats. Your statistical Weapon X.  In short, these are the stats that are enough to piss off a Wolverine. They are: Turnovers, Field Position, Time of Possession, and 3rd-Down Efficiency.

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