Gut Reaction: Week 5 - Broncos vs Chargers

After five games, I've seen enough.  The Kyle Orton era is over in Denver.

Orton may very well play more games this year as the starting quaterback.  Today, though, things broke bad--really bad.

Today's NFL is about making plays, whether they are scripted or not.  The Broncos simply don't have enough time build the perfect offensive line around Orton so he can become the next Troy Aikman.  They've barely got enough draft picks to fix the defense.

I've said this before: In a vacuum, Kyle Orton is the perfect quarterback.  If he has time to sit in the pocket for four or five seconds, he'll rape and pillage.  Unfortunately, that's not the game of football.  You can't call max protection on each and every play.

The game is messy.  Half of the plays the offensive coordinator calls are going to bust.  In short, the vacuum Kyle Orton needs doesn't exist.  It never will.

It's got nothing to do with Tim Tebow.  Tebow may or may not be the answer.  This is Kyle Orton evaluated against Kyle Orton.

He might be the best quarterback on the roster.  But he's not the quarterback 11 games from now.  He's probably not the quarterback in two weeks.

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Open Thread - Sunday Week 5

Enjoy the games everyone, and Go Broncos!

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The Daily Lard 10-9-11

Good Morning, Broncos fans! Lindsay Jones and I spoke a few days ago about Denver fans' feelings of empowerment, and she quoted me and linked to IAOFM within her article today. Obviously, we're flattered that Lindsay sought out our opinion - here's what I said, plus some expanded thoughts on the topic:

It seems like fans feel like their voice matters, that it counts, and that it should carry some weight. We don't really see it that way. It's a horrible way to run a team. You can't win games consistently over a long period of time if you operate that way.

The organization’s responsibility is to win as many games as possible, and that requires a long-term plan and vision. Fans tend to take the short view, while teams (businesses) should be less myopic. The moment a team starts “hearing” what the fans want in terms of which players to draft/sign/cut/sit/play, or whom to hire/fire is precisely when their chance of being successful ceases. That's not to say that the Broncos' current management (or any other) is always right, or that the fans are consistently wrong. No owner, general manager, coach, or head of football operations is ever 100% correct, and of course the fans aren't just ignorant dummies either. But we always have to remember that those making the decisions for the Broncos are operating with plenty more information than are any of us, no matter what we think of their ability to process it well. Of course, our goal here at IAOFM is to constantly narrow that knowledge gap by providing you with the best independent analysis of the Broncos anywhere, and we hope we are succeeding. As always, thanks for being here.

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Fat Pickins (and probability) - Week 5

Welcome to yet another week of Fat Pickins, our little experiment in math, the wisdom of crowds, and drunken stupors.

Here we put the weekly picks of Fat Man's finest up against a drunk, a mob, and an idiot.  We'll leave it up to you to determine the latter.

We also mix in some probability and Baxter McLove's stone-cold drunk locks of the week.  If you haven't followed McLove's locks, he's undefeated this season at 8-0.

Before we jump into last week's results and this week's games, let me say that if you wagered hard-earned money on the Broncos game today, I respect you.  At the same time, I think you are certifiably loco.  Or you've got a rich uncle named Joe Ellis.  Perhaps both.

The Broncos have a 50.06% chance to win.

In other words, no one has a clue about this game.

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Fat off the Bone: Week 5 - Chargers

Last week, the Packers did almost everything the scouting report said they would, but the Broncos were powerless to stop them.  Although the Broncos employed the right strategy defensively (playing nickel most of the game), they simply didn't have the horses to stay in the fight.

This week, the Broncos will again be the least talented team on the field; however, their familiarity with the Chargers' scheme and the Chargers' scheme itself should help the Broncos stay in the game.

Before we break down the percentages, remember that the system that Norv Turner uses in San Diego is the same system he's used since the days when he was the offensive coordinator for all the great Dallas Cowboys teams of the 1990s.  Troy Aikman is played by Philip Rivers.  Michael Irvin is now known as Vincent Jackson.  Antonio Gates is Jay Novacek.  At its core, it's a deep spread passing game, in which the quarterback, unlike other systems, reads deep to short.  In other words, Philip Rivers isn't playing around.   If the deep ball is there, he's going to take it.  

Perhaps that's why his career average yards per attempt is 8.0.  In Turner's offense, almost all of the passing plays have a deep option available to Rivers.  The receivers are taught to get as much space as possible between their intermediate and long routes and between their short and intermediate routes.  Rivers rarely uses a three-step drop.  Instead, in Turner's offense, he consistently uses a lot of five- and seven-step drops.  That doesn't mean he takes a lot of sacks, though.  That's because in Turner's offense, which relies on timing, the quarterback is taught to get the ball out quickly.  You've probably heard and read that Philip Rivers has a quick release.  Part of the reason is because he actually does have a quick release.  The other part is because he's expected to get rid of the ball as soon as his back foot hits at the end of his drop.

With this as our backdrop, let's look at how the Chargers attack a 4-3.

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Gut Reaction - Al Davis is gone

My biggest punch line is gone.

Goodbye, Al Davis, we're going to miss you.

Davis died today at the age of 82 at his home, presumably with his middle finger still pointed at the NFL and at Roger Goodell.

If you were hoping for a rosebud moment, keep hoping.  Davis wouldn't give Goodell the pleasure.

That's exactly why Davis was good for the game, of course.  Unlike today's NFL, replete with waves upon waves of lawyers, and a commissioner whose plastic emotions--whether they're reserved for concussions or for passionate fans--are as transparent as bottled water, Davis was a football guy first.

He wore his emotions on his jumpsuit.

Davis used lawyers, but only because he knew that punching Goodell in the face would result in wounds that would heal.

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The Daily Lard 10-8-11

Good Morning, Broncos fans! Champ Bailey, Rahim Moore, Marcus Thomas and Knowshon Moreno are all probable for tomorrow's game, while Brian Dawkins, Daniel Fells and Jonathan Wilhite are all questionable. As expected, Eddie Royal, Julius Thomas and Demaryius Thomas are out and will hopefully return after the bye week at Miami. Mike Klis is pretty sure Dawkins will play, while Legwold says that Marcus Thomas will make his season debut in a rotational role.

For San Diego, TE Antonio Gates is listed as doubtful, while C Nick Hardwick, WR Vincent Jackson and CB Quentin Jammer are all probably and expected to play. DEs Jacques Cesaire and Luis Castillo continue to be out.

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Digesting the Chargers

Happy Friday, friends.  It’s Chargers week, and today we’re going to Digest the Bolts.  After watching the film, I have some reasons to be cautiously optimistic, and I get the impression from some comments on other articles that I’m not the only one.

As with any week where I come back from vacation, it’s been hellacious.  When you sign up to be a salaried employee, they don’t explicitly tell you that your pile only grows when you’re away, but you figure it out pretty quickly - and taking Friday and Monday off means doing six days of work in four days when you get back.  Anyway, on to the analysis.  Between my job, this site, and my Marketing Strategy class for my MBA program, my brain has been analyzing nonstop this week, and the hamster is getting a little tired.  Still, for you, I press on.

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The Daily Lard 10-7-11

Happy Friday, Broncos fans! Brian Dawkins again did not practice due to his ankle injury, while Rahim Moore joined Jonathan Wilhite on the sideline; both were described by John Fox as being out due to "illness." Quinton Carter saw more action in Dawkins' absence, while Daniel Fells was back at practice, giving the Broncos a full complement of tight ends. Remarkably, Orlando Franklin practiced yesterday despite mourning the loss of his younger brother.

Meanwhile, Vincent Jackson did not practice for the Chargers but is expected back today, while Antonio Gates is still foreseen as missing Sunday's game. CB Quentin Jammer missed practice with the flu but is expected to play.

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STDL: Week 5 - Broncos vs Chargers

Welcome to Week 5's Stats That Don't Lie, already featuring changes from last week's edition. As I explained on Sunday, I'm actually not that wild about using penalty yardage to assess teams, so in the spirit of wanting STDL to be a simple and svelte tool to help visualize the Broncos' chances each week, I've decided to axe that category. I've also changed the rushing metric from CHFF's rusher rating to PFR's Adjusted Rushing Yards per Attempt (ARY/A), also expressed as a differential between offense and defense.

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