Good Morning, Broncos fans! Excellent piece from Brian Burke yesterday relating to who else but Tim Tebow, and it recalls a conversation I often have with Ted. Let's just say I'm a bigger fan of stats than is Ted. As a guy who relies upon what he sees with his eyes to inform his opinions of football players (or anything else, for that matter), Ted thinks stats do not or will not capture the essence of someone like Tebow, who indisputably brings some terrific, immeasurable qualities to a football team and onto the field.
I disagree; my position is simply that the conventional stats folks tend to rely upon (ie. gross yardage, TD passes, interceptions) are not the ones that ever paint the most accurate picture anyway, so I don't care how Tebow ranks in those categories (rate stats like ANY/A, TD%, INT% are much more telling). In other words, if Tebow does become a good or great NFL player, we already have tools to accurately measure that via stats - this will not turn into a case of Tebow winning lots of games for the Broncos at QB while accumulating some crappy stats. If/when Tebow becomes a sustained NFL success, we'll know it with our eyes, and the stats that really matter will show that. (Sustained, because flukey things like a QB playing like crap but winning can happen in any single game, or even be strung into a good season or two. See Young, Vince.)
After writing my game reaction yesterday, in which I had some criticism of Tim Tebow, I received several emails questioning my Broncos fanhood.
Just what does it mean to be a Broncos fan?
Back when I was a kid and began to identify myself as a fan, all that meant was watching my father curse John Elway on television and getting into fistfights at school with Steelers fans. It didn't take a lot of Broncos gear, Broncos tattoos, or a throwback jersey; it didn't require a cable package, mandatory attendance at Mile High Stadium (I made it to just a handful of games), or box seat; it didn't require that I adhere to a code, or sign my name somewhere, or join a group on Facebook group created by other self-identified fans.
And it sure as hell didn't require blind devotion--to the owner, to the quarterback, to other fans.
The IAOFM staff discuss the Denver Broncos' 18-15 comeback victory over the Miami Dolphins
Ted: WHO'S GOT TEBOW FEVER?
TJ: Schefter says Tony S. is playing for his job today. Sparano better have used the Tebow thing as bulletin board material. Otherwise, he should lose his job. I would give a hell fire speech before the game if I were Sparano, saying 1) Look at what they are saying!!! 2) They don't even care about you! 3) They care about some college player who thinks he's Jesus Christ Superstar, and then takes some chairs and smash them into Jason Taylor
Ted: I'll bet you Sparano doesn’t do that. He gives his usual execution speech. But it ain't going to matter if Matt Moore keeps playing like he's been playing
Doug: What's the point of firing him now? Unless Cowher is coming in right now, or someone like that? Otherwise you've got some interim coach for the last 10 weeks?
Ted: Yeah, Doug...Mike Nolan
Good Morning, Broncos fans! It's Monday, which means it's time for another wet towel to dampen all the excitement. I know, a win is a win, right? Especially when you come back from down 15-0 with 5:23 left on the clock to emerge 18-15 in OT (box score), and especially when your QB is making his fourth NFL start, right? Obviously, the ending was exhilirating, improbable and memorable, and if one had flipped on the game at that point they'd think Tim Tebow was an excellent NFL QB - and for those 5:23 of game time, that would be pretty accurate.
But here's the thing - we can't just judge Tim on those two drives. We all witnessed the first 54:37 of the game and Denver's prior 11 possessions, two of which went for more than 16 yards (34 and 54, to be exact). No, the playcalling wasn't good. But Tebow was worse. He was beyond terrible. What kind of calls can you make when your QB is missing wide open targets by 10 yards, or throwing the ball five yards out of bounds with open receivers and no pressure? Not only were the Broncos without a third-down conversion until the fourth quarter, but they were without a single passing first down until more than half of the fourth quarter was gone.
Confirmation bias isn't just a river in Egypt.
This week, every Broncos fan will have a legitimate claim to their view.
Does Tim Tebow have what it takes to be the Broncos starting quarterback?
The score says yes. So do the thousands of Tebowites who skipped church this morning to witness Tebow's 4th-quarter comeback.
But the game plan says no. John Fox and Mike McCoy called this game like they couldn't trust their quarterback--or their team. Without an onside kick recovery, an OT turnover, some amazing catches by Demaryius Thomas and Daniel Fells, and a Dolphins team that ran a prevent defense that only prevented them from winning, this game is a loss to a brutally bad team.
The Broncos had fourteen days to create a game plan for the Miami Dolphins. It was clearly thirteen days too many. They could have done better by simply letting Tebow use his old Florida playbook and flying in Urban Meyer. At least they would have converted a 3rd down before the fourth quarter.
This game did nothing to resolve the quarterback issue for the Broncos, but at least it was exciting in the end. That's more than the Broncos have had in a long time.
(Update & Correction: The coverage noted in the last two drives was clearly NOT prevent, quarter coverage, it was nickel, deep-zone coverage)
Enjoy the games, everyone - and Go Broncos!
Before I get to this week's picks, let me give you a quick scouting report on the Miami Dolphins.
They try to run. When that doesn't work, Brandon Marshall tries to push off up the field to get separation. Call it the bully route.
It's not been working that well this year. In fact, it's been a bit clumsy.
Gee, where have I heard that before?
Look for the trend to continue.
Now, on to the picks.
Good Morning, Broncos fans! You know what really grinds my gears? People like Dan Gainor (whom Kiszla quotes extensively in his column today) who say they're rooting for Tim Tebow because he's a "good role model" and a "player whose jersey you can wear and not worry about wanting to burn it tomorrow" because presumably he's not engaging in any scandalous behavior. Right, because most players are involved in scandals? Are the Broncos lacking in role models? What's wrong with Champ Bailey, Brian Dawkins, Elvis Dumervil, Eddie Royal, or Kyle Orton among the notable Denver veterans?
What's even funnier, is that Gainor goes on to say that if whatever criticism is directed at Tebow were instead aimed at a racial minority, there would be quite the backlash. This prompts a simple question. Would folks like Gainor be so interested in Tebow or in extolling his virtues if Tim weren't white?
Good Morning, Broncos fans! Denver is hoping to have Julius Thomas in action tomorrow, although he's listed as questionable. Brian Dawkins, Demaryius Thomas, Eddie Royal and Willis McGahee are all listed as probably and will play.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins are banged up at free safety and are unlikely to have usual starter Reshad Jones (doubtful) and his main backup Chris Clemons (questionable). That leaves Tyrone Culver, who's primarily a special-teams player, and Gerald Alexander (who was just re-signed on Wednesday) to man the position. CB Vontae Davis and TE Will Yeatman are also questionable, while Brandon Marshall, Reggie Bush, LB Cameron Wake, RB Daniel Thomas, and CB Nolan Carroll are all listed as probable.
Happy Friday, friends. I hope you're hungry, because today we're going to munch on some Dolphins that got caught in the nets. The Broncos travel south to sunny Miami, where they've never won a regular season game. Since the Dolphins seem hell-bent on winning the Suck for Luck sweepstakes, it's looking like the Broncos will have a solid chance to end that streak. Can you hear the zealots? Tebow is the greatest ever! He did something that no Broncos QB has ever done!
Personally, I'd be happy with continuous improvement from Tebow, and effective overall play. If the Broncos get that, and if the defense plays like it did in the second half vs. San Diego, I feel pretty good about their chances to improve to 2-4. If not, there's always next week. Anyway, let's get on with the show. As En Vogue once said, Now it's time for a breakdown.
Game Watched: Dolphins at NY Jets (Week 6)