Fat Pickins (and Probability) - Week 12

Stop me if you've heard this one.

Doug Lee, TJ Johnson, and Mike Silver walk into a bar.

Lee and Silver walk out a little happier.  TJ just gets wasted.

Welcome to another week of our staff picks, where we're out to prove you really can screw up your picks when you use shot glasses.

This week, the numbers say the Broncos have roughly a 33% chance of winning.

The numbers are wrong; the Chargers are in meltdown.

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The Playbook Abides - The growth of Tim Tebow

I've been steadfast in my defense of Tim Tebow in one area of his game--pre-snap reads.

Accuracy is another issue, but let's put that aside for the moment.  Let's continue to focus on Tebow's ability to read a defense when he comes to the line of scrimmage.

Last week's game against the Jets presented a greater challenge than Tebow had faced in previous weeks.  The Jets typically mix their coverages pre-snap; they did so again when facing the Broncos.

The challenge for Tebow then (as with any quarterback, for that matter) was getting to the line of scrimmage and knowing where he needed to go with the ball.

We'll take a look at the first play of the game last week, which resulted in a 28-yard gain.  Was it just luck?  Or was it Tebow?

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STDL: Week 12 - Broncos at Chargers

The Broncos are undoubtedly in the thick of things in the AFC West, and a victory tomorrow could all but end the Chargers' chances to take back the division they had ruled for five out of six years prior to last year's stumble. San Diego is reeling, having lost five straight games (the first four by a single score) and turning the ball over an astonishing 14 times during that stretch. Of course, the Broncos are on the upswing, have won four of their last five, and they've given it away just once in three games. Just how likely is Denver to pull of their (previously unimaginable) third road divisional win in four weeks' time? Let's check out the Stats That Don't Lie to find out:

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The Daily Lard 11-26-11

Good Morning, Broncos fans! Chris Benson previews Broncos/Chargers for PFF, and he says a loss will be close to a death knell to either team's playoff chances, especially so in San Diego's case. Benson theorizes that Denver isn't necessarily setting out to run the ball so many times, but they're just going with the flow rather than sticking with a pass-heavy game plan when it's not working. He also points out that both teams have been successful in defending the run, while on offense both squads are featuring running back corps that resemble MASH Units. Finally, Benson ponders the age-old question for Denver whenever they face San Diego (Who will cover Antonio Gates?) and wonders if the answer could be Von Miller.

Continue reading "The Daily Lard 11-26-11"

Re-Digesting the Chargers

Happy Fat Man Friday, friends.  On Sunday, the Broncos will plays the Chargers for the second time this season.  What’s changed since October 9th?  Well, on the surface, the answer is everything.  Tim Tebow took over the Broncos offense in the second half of that game, with his team trailing 23-10 and looking sluggish.  Tebow then rallied the team to fall just short of winning at 29-24, as a pass into the end zone on the game’s final play was nearly caught by Matt Willis in the typical Hail Mary crowd.  On that day, the Chargers improved to 4-1, and the Broncos fell to 1-4.

Since then, the Broncos are 4-1 on the strength of an improved defense and running game, as well as some timely plays by Tebow.  The Chargers are 0-5 in that same period and have gotten really banged up in the process.  I can’t see any way that their season isn’t over, in terms of playoff meaning, at this point.

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Miller fined $25K for hit on Sanchez

Broncos’ Miller fined $25,000 for hit on Jets’ Sanchez
blogs.denverpost.com

Miller was fined $25,000 for a hit on Jets’ quarterback Mark Sanchez in the Broncos’ Nov. 17 win over New York in in Sports Authority Field at Mile High.

Hard to dispute this, as it was a blatant late hit on Sanchez, as we detailed in our CTF from the game.

PK: More Von love; watching Elway

Rookie Miller the quiet motor behind Broncos' recent success
sportsillustrated.cnn.com

Rookie linebacker Von Miller’s a keeper, and while the mania over Tim Tebow’s play is the talk of the Rocky Mountain region, the Miller-led Broncos defense is the real reason why they’ve been able to come back late in scintillating games…What those who have watched Miller all season have seen is the speed, the power and the effort…Paired with Elvis Dumervil, there aren’t many better bookend pass-rush tag-teams playing right now.

More from PK: "Elway looked like he was clapping for the unknown 298th graduate in his kid's 400-person graduating class when Tim Tebow led the Broncos to the winning score against the Jets eight nights ago. If I'm the CBS crew in San Diego Sunday, I've got a camera trained on Elway's seat any time Tebow gets in the red zone."

The Daily Lard 11-25-11

Happy Friday, Broncos fans! John Elway told Dave Krieger that he's stopped reading his Twitter account, and who can blame him? Krieger writes, 

Trying to have a rational public conversation about Tebow is mostly futile these days. The subject has passed into a realm normally occupied by politics and religion, where people already know what they think and once the usual talking points are exhausted, the argument often devolves into personal insults. Because Elway shares the doubts of many league insiders about long-term success without a robust passing game, and because he's forthright enough to say so, he is now routinely accused of being jealous of Tebow's popularity and wanting him to fail...Maybe the Twitter loudmouths are just the lunatic fringe. But it would be understandable if Elway has reviewed his most recent career choice lately and wondered to himself, "What the heck was I thinking?"

I couldn't agree more. However, if in fact Tim does not have the ability to be a franchise QB anytime soon (and you know what I think of that), then there's nobody aside from Elway who has the political capital to move on from the Tebow experiment. Well, except among the Twittersphere, of course...

Continue reading "The Daily Lard 11-25-11"

Open Thread - Thanksgiving 2011

Enjoy the games and your meals, everyone!

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The Daily Lard 11-24-11

Happy Thanksgiving, Broncos fans! I'd just like to take a moment to selfishly give some IAOFM-related thanks -  I'm thankful that TJ came up with the idea to pursue this project, that Doc was all for it from Day 1, and that Ted rounded out our writing crew back in January. I'm thankful to be able to legitimately call Ted, Doc and TJ my friends, guys that I can talk to daily about life just as much as football. I'm thankful that my great pal David was willing to usher us four noobs into the world of running a website, especially when he's so busy with a demanding day job, a young family, and a humongous site of his own.

Of course, I'm thankful that all of you choose to spend so much of your valuable time reading our work and sharing your opinions and reactions, even when we don't see eye-to-eye on things. It's your readership that makes this all worthwhile, and we appreciate each and every one of you. So, on behalf of the five of us, I'd like to wish all of you a wonderful holiday - enjoy the great eats and football, and please drive safely.

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