Can Tim Tebow Keep It Up?
In all, despite winning all those games with Tebow as the starter this year, the Broncos have actually been outscored by a total of two points in those games…So, in other words, the fact that Tebow’s started his career winning seven of his first ten starts shouldn’t tell us very much about what he’s likely to do going forward, but the fact that he’s done so while being outscored isn’t exactly a great sign…That jibes with our research that a team’s record in those close games from year-to-year is basically random and will revolve around the mean (a .500 record).
The numbers suggest that Tebow is exhibiting a sign of future professional viability, but even if he makes it as a professional quarterback, he’s been lucky to avoid those picks so far. He will have to pay the interception piper eventually…The bad news for Tebow is that a player’s completion percentage—unlike his interception rate—tends to stay pretty consistent as he gets more NFL experience.
Tim Tebow probably can’t win 70 percent of the time or pick up victories in 85 percent of his close games, but maybe he can sustain an incredibly low interception rate or win with an embarrassing completion percentage in a way that other players can’t. At the very least, it’s certainly going to be a lot of fun to see him try to pull it off.
The most encouraging part of Barnwell's piece is that Tebow has good company as far as low early INT rates go - other QBs who have started out with so few picks have eventually had much higher INT rates, but they also have gone on to have lengthy and successful careers. As for the point differential, we were just talking about that this morning and yesterday, and last week we covered the fact that low completion rates tend to be accompanied by high interception rates (comment 24). But of course, there's always the chance Tebow becomes the Black Swan of NFL quarterbacks.
Roethlisberger's foot injury raises playoff concerns in tight AFC North
Tim Tebow trying for 7-1. Amazing, isn’t it? Tebowing has become a national kneel, and when you blow a late lead in sports, you’ve gotten Tebowed. The Bears are next. With a bad quarterback situation.
Guy's the most well-known football writer in the country. Amazing, isn't it?
IT’S THIS YEAR’S GREATEST NFL PARODY SONG
“Cutty come back…We’re working with a useless QB…There was something in every spiral you threw”
Mere months ago, they were questioning his toughness and burning his jersey. Now, they have Caleb Hanie. Sometimes you have to be careful what you wish for, eh Bears fans?
Randall Cunningham: Tim Tebow 'divinely appointed'
“The message is saying God is in control, man is not in control,” Cunningham says. “When I look at the divinely appointed things that he [Tebow] does, and when I just watch him… I begin to pray at the end of the game ‘Lord, let him come back and win another one.’ And he does it.”
And here we've been debating the merits of the running game and Cover 2.
Had I known Cunningham was making this #$@! happen from Sin City, I would have just TiVo'd these games.
Caleb vs. Tebow Biblical Cred (Take God, Bears and Points)
In one of the most famous stories from the Old Testament, God orders Moses to send spies from each of the tribes of Israel into Canaan. Although God has just taken the Children of Israel out of slavery in Egypt, the scouting report from these easily spooked spies says this new land is filled with inhabitants too fearsome to conquer. The exceptions to the consensus view are Joshua and Caleb….Caleb seeks to counter the “evil report” and “reassure the people.” (Are you listening, Bears fans?) God, perhaps worried the people have been spending too much time listening to sports radio, sends the whole bunch back to the desert for 40 years to kill off the defeatists. However, God singles out Joshua and Caleb for survival because they “wholly followed the Lord.”...Oh, and those spies? Twelve of them, one for each tribe. Caleb Hanie’s jersey number? Number 12. Coincidence? I think not.
Bears by one. After a fourth quarter touchdown, they disdain the tie and go for two points. Hanie sneaks over the goal line, making the conversion. Bears win.
Happy Friday Broncos fans! Jeffri Chadiha says the success of Tim Tebow is about more than timely plays on defense and special teams - rather he suggests it's matter of Tebow exploiting the disappearance of quality tackling at the NFL level. He also cites a lack of defensive discipline as evidenced by the Raiders' Week 9 (second half) debacle and Jets S Eric Smith's whiff on Tebow's game-winning TD run, and the shoddy play of Minnesota's secondary last week.
Chadiha thinks the case of Tebow and how John Fox and Mike McCoy catered the offense to match his strengths is all too rare in today's NFL, and he's baffled that other teams haven't done the same for their players - especially offensive coaches like Mikes Shanahan and Martz, who clearly don't have the tools at their disposal (QBs for Shanny, O-line for Martz) to run the offenses that won them rings.
These are all fair and interesting points, to be sure, as is his closing sentiment that Tebow's example is making everyone question their own long-held notions. But let's not get ahead of ourselves here. When four of your six wins have come by four points or less and mostly against poor teams (after trailing for all but 93 minutes in total), it might be a little early to be talking about sea changes and epidemics of highly-paid entitlement and a lack of toughness. After all, it can easily be said that scheduling, injuries, and luck have played a large role in Denver's winning streak, even if luck doesn't fit into the red-meat/macho image of NFL football (more on that in a bit).
For TV networks, it's Tebow Time
Meanwhile, Fox and CBS are shifting their NFL schedules around to get Tebow in front of the biggest audience possible. Last Sunday’s game between the Broncos and Minnesota Vikings on Fox was originally slated to be shown to 36% of the country, but Fox upgraded it so that it was available to almost 70%.
Here's what that looked liked visually, via the506.com:
Boy battling cancer gets call from Tim Tebow
Doctors diagnosed Blake with a brain tumor in 2008, and after two incredibly misleading and painfully temporary remissions, years of chemotherapy and surgery, the leukemia came back with a vengeance, spreading to his spine.
Doctors told his mother and Blake that it is now untreatable.
Miranda tells us, “I don’t have time to cry. It might be a moment I’m missing with him.”
And one of those moments has to do with Blake’s love of Tim Tebow and football. He proudly showed us a football ball signed by the former Florida Gator and current Denver Broncos quarterback. He then he proudly explained how Tim Tebow called him on December 1st and what the two discussed.
Blake says, “He told me he was going to meet me. That’s about it!!”
Cool is cool. That's about all I've got to say about that.
I can analyze mechanics another day.
The Curious Case of Tim Tebow
In all honesty, Tebow’s stats aren’t that bad. Sure he doesn’t complete a lot of passes, but when he does he makes them count….Tim Tebow adds about 3.5 points per game to his team over a replacement level quarterback. That’s just slightly below league average, and better than the 1 extra point per game that Kyle Orton was adding earlier in the season….With a rating of 0.66, against an average opponent rating of -0.49, should Denver really be 6-1? Looking at their actual schedule, rather than just the average opponent, the Last 7 rating predicts that Denver would win on average only 3.47 out of the 7 games if they had to play them again. That means they won 2.5 more than they should’ve, a Luck Rating of 2.5. That seems reasonable, given how many fourth quarter comebacks they needed over this stretch…Being lucky is nice, and some might contend that it’s actually skill in the clutch or even something greater. Unfortunately for Broncos fans it shouldn’t be expected to continue. We’ve covered the topic of luck before, and found that what we call luck doesn’t generally carry over from season to season in football.
I would have went with 2.5334239, but, hey, that's just me.
And as far as luck goes, as Frank Sinatra once said: "Luck be a smokin' hot latina whispering, I'll take the Broncos tonight."