STDL: Week 4 - Broncos vs Packers

Over the years, TJ has presented The Stats That Don't Lie, a weekly glance at the Broncos' standing within the league in several key statistical categories. Going forward, I'm going to be reprising STDL by focusing on a few numbers that evidence a high correlation to winning (or losing) NFL games, and how the Broncos match up in those areas against their upcoming opponent. 

We'll start today with Broncos/Packers, which as you might have figured doesn't look pretty in bar graph form. Actually, no figures would look good in my crude charts, but we're working on coming up with something a bit more pleasing to the eye.

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Dinger Lard 10-2-11

It's a sad weekend in Broncos Country, as former Denver assistant head coach and wide receivers coach Mike Heimerdinger passed away Friday night at the age of 58 in Mexico, where he was receiving experimental cancer treatments. Heimerdinger had been diagosed with a rare and aggressive cancer which attacks the lymphatic system in November of 2010, and he incredibly continued to coach the Titans' offense and call plays for them while undergoing chemotherapy last season.

Coach Heimerdinger, who played WR in college, was a roommate and teammate of Mike Shanahan while both were at Eastern Illinois, and Shanny credits Dinger with having saved his life after the young QB had ruptured a kidney during spring practice. The two were reunited in 1995 when Shanahan hired Heimerdinger to coach the Broncos' wide receivers, and during his five seasons in that role he helped turn Rod Smith into the only undrafted player to gain 10,000 receiving yards, and the twice-discarded Ed McCaffrey into a Denver fixture. Dinger returned to Denver in 2006 as Shanahan's assistant head coach for two years, coordinating the Titans and Jets' offenses during the intervening years.

Heimerdinger is survived by his wife Kathie, their daughter, Alicia, and son, Brian, who works for Kubes and the Texans in their scouting department. Our thoughts at IAOFM go out to the Heimerdinger family. RIP, Coach Dinger.

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Fat Pickins (and probability) - Week 4

Like a moth to the flame burned by the fire, my picks are blind; can't you feel my misfire?

That's the way picks go.

Welcome to another addition of Fat Pickins--the least-read column of the week at our humble site.

Why does it get so few hits?  

Because no one really cares who another man believes is going to win a football game--unless there are naked cheerleaders involved.

Unfortunately, I didn't have the time this week to arrange for that, so we'll make fun of Peter King's afro instead.

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Fat off the Bone: Week 4 - Packers

Mike McCarthy may not like spiders and snakes, but he sure loves zebras and tigers.

This week, I did something a little different.  I took my own advice (for once), and charted the first 15 plays from each of the Green Bay Packers' first three games of the year.  As we've seen in the past, the first few drives can tell you a lot about how a team wants to attack their opponent.  After this, the offense typically adjusts to down, distance, score, and time remaining in the game.

The Packers faced some interesting defenses, but all of them, like the Denver Broncos, were of the 4-3 variety.  In Week 1 they took on Dennis Allen's mentor Gregg Williams and the blitz-heavy New Orleans Saints.  In Week 2, they faced off against John Fox's old team, the Carolina Panthers.  Finally, in Week 3, they battled against the Tampa-2 laden Chicago Bears.

What I found was a heavy dose of animal looks.  What do I mean by this?  Simply put, the Packers and Mike McCarthy rely almost exclusively on their 113 (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) and 122 (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR) when attacking the 4-3.  In McCarthy's offense, these packages are called the Zebra (113) and the Tiger (122).  

These animal personnel groupings are the key to understanding how the Packers plan to take apart the Broncos' defense.

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The Daily Lard 10-1-11

Good Morning, Broncos fans! Knowshon Moreno and D.J. Williams are listed as probable on the final injury report for the week, Champ Bailey, Elvis Dumervil and Marcus Thomas are questionable, and Eddie Royal, Demaryius Thomas and Julius Thomas are likely not back before Denver's Week 6 bye. For Green Bay, RB Ryan Grant and RT Bryan Bulaga are indeed out, while LT Chad Clifton, LB Clay Matthews, TE Jermichael Finley, CB Tramon Williams and CB Charles Woodson are all probable.

Chris Benson of PFF previews the game, and he thinks a realistic goal for Denver is to cover the 13-point spread. He writes that the Broncos have not faced anyone as dangerous as Jermichael Finley, and that the teams is faced with quite a dilemma in picking the poison between Finley and WRs Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson. Benson thinks that if Champ isn't quite up to his usual standard, Aaron Rodgers may pick on him a bit with Jennings, and of course he figures that the Broncos will provide Orlando Franklin with plenty of help in dealing with Clay Matthews.

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Digesting the Packers

Happy Friday friends, and welcome to the first ever edition of Digesting that was written in the air or on an iPad.  It's been a hellaciously busy week as expected, but I'm heartened by the fact that as soon as we got over the clouds on the way out of Cleveland, the overcast gloomy view vanished and it was nothing but sunshine.

This week it's the Green Bay Packers in lovely Wisconsin, land of cow patties and beer farts.  I'm not exactly breaking news to say that this will be challenging, and I'd go so far as to say that I think Brian Burke's model which Doug referenced this morning may be over-optimistic in giving the Broncos a 25% win probability.  I've got my rubber gloves on (I lease them with an option to buy) and I'm ready to conduct the examination, so without further adieu, let's get it on.

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The Daily Lard 9-30-11

Happy Friday, Broncos fans! Surely this is going to bring some cries of diva, but Brandon Lloyd wants to see more deep targets in his direction. He does have 10 catches in just two games played (he missed the Bengals game with a groin injury), but his average reception has gone for just 12.7 yards, a pittance relative to his 18.8-yard average from last season.

Lloyd blames the team's purported commitment to the run, while John Fox says Lloyd just hasn't been healthy enough (probably true). Yet, the Broncos have a split of 62% pass and 38% run so far - they just haven't attacked deep, or as Ted would say, they haven't taken the top off of the defense. To wit, the Broncos and Kyle Orton have only attempted 13 deep passes through three games, completing five of them. Meanwhile, the team has just 7 passes that have gone for 20 or more yards (including YAC) which ties them for 8th-fewest in the league. Meanwhile, the Patriots have had 22 such plays and the Cowboys 20 of them, although the high-octane Packers have had just 9 passes go for 20+ yards and have only attempted 17 deep passes.

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Fat Camp: Screen passes

Denver's defense has bitten - and thus been bitten - a few times on screens this year. The screen that Denver has been biting on is the slow screen, which is sometimes called the conventional screen - it's hard to run and not that many teams use it much. The reason for that is simple - once the team has been together for a while, they usually won't bite on the slow screen.

It's a very hard play to run and time properly. If you're a defensive lineman and you're suddenly not being blocked, there's a reason for it and it generally isn't clean living and good fortune - it's because they're trying to make a sap out of you. Denver has been terribly undisciplined defensively for years now, and I've been a bit disappointed in the lack of progress there - but I do believe that if we give DC Dennis Allen a full season he’ll put a stop to a lot of it, and I doubt that it will be as much of an issue. It’s early in the season, but Broncos DC Dennis Allen looks like one of the finds of the offseason.

Every team needs a screen pass or three on hand to keep the on-rushing defenders honest or to make them pay when they’re not. There are five screens that are generally considered as such - and there is an additional option called a ‘smoke route’ that I’ll also cover, since it does much the same thing - run properly, it makes the defense pay for their tendency towards aggression.

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The Daily Lard 9-29-11

Good Morning, Broncos fans! Denver finally got Marcus Thomas back onto the practice field along with Champ Bailey and Elvis Dumervil, albeit in limited fashion for all three. It's been a rough go for Thomas, who suffered a pec injury during training camp and recovered in time for Week 1 before straining a groin during his conditioning test. Obviously, it could take him a while to get back into playing shape - so even if he's able to play on Sunday at all, figure his playing time to be severely limited.

Meanwhile, Knowshon Moreno and D.J. Williams were full participants yesterday, and it will be interesting to see how their respective returns affect how much action Willis McGahee and Wesley Woodyard see in Green Bay. Eddie Royal, Demaryius Thomas and Julius Thomas remain sidelined and are unlikely to return prior to Week 7 (following Denver's bye).

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Fattening Up on J.D. Walton

Like several readers who have commented here, I actually enjoyed most of Denver's game Sunday against the Titans. I prefer winning as much as anyone, but I’d like to remind folks of some old words of wisdom. When the fans talked last year, they said that all they wanted was a team that was competitive every game. The Broncos have been, and whether or not their schedule will be tougher, that’s a good thing to see. Von Miller showed that wisdom doesn’t always require age:

We’re not going to let this stop our work habits or slow us down. We are going to get back in the lab tomorrow and analyze the film and keep taking steps to be the team that we want to be.

Getting better is what Denver has to be focused on. I found some research that indicated that in Great Britain they did a study on soaking in tubs and pools at exactly 100-101 degrees for 1.5 to 3 hours a day. It lets me keep up on my reading, and I have to admit - I’m learning to just let things go and relax more.

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2014 Offseason

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