Patriots will have to come to Denver, and that’s bad for them

Why the Denver Broncos are Super Bowl favorites
www.nfl.com

No matter what seed the Broncos end up with, I’m comfortable calling them the slight AFC favorites to go to the Super Bowl. It’s simple math, really. The Houston Texans are not playing well, steamrolled in two of their last three games. They should be seen as underdogs to Denver and New England because of quarterback play, among other factors.

That leaves the Broncos and Patriots as the two most likely AFC representatives for the Super Bowl. If New England is going to make it to New Orleans, the Patriots are probably going to have to win in Denver. Advantage Broncos.

Patriots, come out to playaaaaay


¹ Best gang from this movie had to be the The Furies.

Plenty to play for Lard

Good Morning, Broncos fans! It may be cliched for the team to say it's not looking past Sunday's game against the woeful Chiefs.

But considering the prize that awaits a regular-season-ending victory, it's not hard to believe. After all, the Broncos will guarantee themselves a first-round bye and two weeks to prep for their playoff opener, if they're able to dispatch with the NFL's worst team.

Even better, if the Colts somehow manage to knock off the Texans in Indy on Sunday (in an early kickoff), Denver will have an opportunity to snatch home-field advantage from Houston with a win.

Win Sunday, and the Broncos will have two weeks to heal up, rest up, and game plan for whomever they'll end up hosting in the divisional round - New England would appear the likeliest opponent, if Denver remains the number-two seed.

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Giving John Fox his due

Broncos' John Fox seeks 100th win, endorses Peyton Manning for MVP
www.denverpost.com

What sets Fox’s record apart is he won eight games, including one in the playoffs, with Tim Tebow at quarterback during the 2011 season. He’s won 12 more so far this year with Manning at quarterback.

“I’ve had a great staff, great players,” Fox said. “A lot goes into that. It’s not one guy. They put it on your record or tombstone or whatever, but I just happened to be head coach during that. But there’s a lot of efforts and I appreciate all those efforts. We’re just worried about this week. We’ve got a good team coming in.”

We've had our share of debates about John Fox's decisions on fourth downs, to be sure.  We'll save that argument for another day.

Leave little doubt that John Fox's management style generates respect from players, coaches, and, well, just about everyone around the league.  He lets his players play and his coaches coach.  And he does it without a lot of arrogance, ego, or PowerPoint presentations.  In the time of cholera Bill Belichick,  there's something to be said for that.

A Second Helping of the Broncos’ six sacks against the Browns

Happy Monday, friends.  Since tomorrow is Christmas, and I'll be busy celebrating the birth of the homie Jesus (or something), I've been slaving over a hot Game Rewind so I can break you off a little something for today.  In honor of the Broncos retaking the NFL lead in team sacks, I decided to look at each one of their six from yesterday, to see what we can glean from them.

Interestingly, all six sacks occurred in the second half, and in general, there's a reason for that.  When teams get down multiple scores in the second halves of games, they tend to forget about running the ball.  That allows the defense to simply play the pass, and guys who would normally read run-to-pass are able to focus on either coverage or blitzing.  Tactically, the stuff the Broncos did Sunday isn't seen too much outside of third-and-long, when the Broncos don't have a big lead.  Let's look at those tactics to gain understanding of how each sack worked.

After the jump, we'll get screenshot-happy.  Ready.... BEGIN!!

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Blowout win, ho ho hum Lard

Good Morning, Broncos fans! For most of the season, Houston (12-3) has sported the best record in the AFC. Only three weeks ago, they were 11-1 and appeared to have an ironclad grip on the conference's top seed, and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

But with their stunningly futile 23-6 home loss to Minnesota (9-6), the Texans have now dropped two of three, and fallen into a tie with YOUR Denver Broncos (12-3), who strolled past the Browns (5-10) in a 34-12 cinch of a win, their tenth consecutive victory (Gamebook, ANS box score).

Of course, Kubes & Co. own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Broncos, thanks to their Week 3 win at SAF@MH. Therefore, Denver will need the host Colts to knock off the Texans next week, and then take care of their own business at home against the Chiefs, in order to snatch away the number-one seed.

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Gut Reaction: Week 16 - Broncos vs Browns

Santa Claus is real.  I don't care what your parents told you.

How do I know?

Because I heard him on the roof, dropping gifts down your orange-and-blue chimney.

The first gift? A ten-game winning streak.

The second? A quarterback more accurate than Santa's naughty/nice list.

The third?

Well, that came from Santa's little helpers, the Minnesota Vikings.  Because of their win, the Broncos just might get the #1 seed.

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Open Thread: Sunday Week 16

Enjoy the games, and Go Broncos, Vikings, and Jaguars!

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Prater still not worth the dough Lard

Good Morning, Broncos fans! We've been highly critical of John Elway & Co. for having made the strong-legged but inaccurate Matt Prater one of the league's highest paid kickers this season.

After using their franchise tag to retain the restricted free agent last off-season, Denver gave the sixth-year kicker $4.25M in guarantees as part of a four-year, $13M deal. Those guarantees amount to his 2012 compensation, and he's due salaries of $2.5M, $3M, and $3.25M over the next three seasons.

Has Prater lived up to the tag, or the contract? So far, he absolutely has not.

At 23/29 (79.3%) on the season, the UCF alum ranks 26th out of 31 kickers who have attempted at least 15 field goals.

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Open Thread: Saturday Week 16 - Falcons @ Lions

Sam Monson previews the matchup. Enjoy the game!

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Broncos are fumbling less, lucky when they do Lard

Good Morning, Broncos fans! Denver has gone four weeks without having lost a fumble. In most years, this probably wouldn't be particularly notable.

But in the case of these 2012 Broncos, it's quite a turnaround, given that they had lost at least one fumble in nine of their first ten games, for a total of 13 lost fumbles out of 16. As we had shown after nine games, much of this was a matter of luck, but the team's improved fortunes have not solely been about not losing fumbles - they've also been putting the ball on the ground much less often.

After those 16 fumbles in 10 games, Denver has just three fumbles in its past four games - a poor snap by Dan Koppen against Tampa Bay, a muffed punt by Trindon Holliday at Oakland, and a Holliday fumble on a kickoff last week. The former two were recovered by Denver, while the latter went out of bounds and stayed with the Broncos.

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