Denver--With Week 17 almost in the books, Homefield Advantage is still weighing his options.
Faced with the prospect of Houston, Denver, or New England, the elusive recluse, who has vacationed in New England during the last two years, could only say: "I've not made any decision yet."
It's thought that the Houston Texans may have the inside edge due to Houston's mild winter climate, but Denver's ski slopes could also be a deciding factor. It's unlikely, though, that Homefield Advantage would want a third straight trip to the bitter wind and cold of New England. By Friday morning, he wasn't giving anything away.
"I love Aspen," he said. "The girls on the slopes are pretty stacked, if you know what I mean. And I've not seen Denver since I freebased some NoDoz on gameday with Mark Brunell in '96. But, listen, I also love moon rocks, too. Isn't that where Kennedy was shot? Wait, is Dallas out of this thing yet?"
Brandon Marshall won’t cheer for Packers even though Bears need them to win
The Chicago Bears may not control their own destiny to secure a playoff spot this weekend, but their formula is fairly simple. If the Bears defeat the Detroit Lions and the Green Bay Packers beat the Minnesota Vikings, Chicago slides into one of two wild card spots.
“I’m not cheering for anybody but the Bears,” Marshall said Thursday according to Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune. “Yeah, that’s how it is. We put ourselves in this position and right now it could be a good position. You never know how things will work out. But all we can do is beat Detroit and sit back and have a cup of coffee and see what happens at that afternoon game.”
We even have a specific roast picked out for Brandon's Packers/Vikings accompaniment - Fair Trade Certified™ Italian Roast - the sweetness of doing nothing, indeed.
Happy Friday, Broncos fans! So, turns out that the UT™ didn't actually demand out of the LOLJets Wildcat package, thus preserving his reputation as someone who would never tell a lie. Neat little trick by the Tebow camp:
One last word on what was effectively a Tim Tebow mutiny. A source close to the situation explained that Tebow didn't say directly to coach Rex Ryan that he would no longer play in the wildcat after learning he was being passed over for Greg McElroy. But this fact was definitely conveyed to the Jets from a member of the Tebow camp -- with Tebow's knowledge -- to the Jets.
Tebow is a good human being. There's no question about that, but there's also no question this was blatant insubordination. It doesn't matter if Tebow later came to his senses and told Ryan he would do whatever the team needed. It was too late.
If almost any other player had pulled a stunt like this, they'd be pilloried by fans. The same should happen to Tebow.
Yeah, we know - Timmy played hard for the Broncos in 2011. Big whoop. Does that mean the other 52 guys on the roster didn't?
Why was it okay to call all summer long for D.J. Williams's head while excusing everything from the UT™? Did D.J. - who was the team's leading tackler and third-leading sack man - not play hard last year too? Can anyone really be sure the Broncos would have made the playoffs without D.J.?
Blessed Are The Geeks ...
There was a time, not so long ago, when teams were smarter than everyone else. A time when Football Men had all the answers—theirs was a game with as vast a knowledge gap between the insiders and the outsiders as any other sport. But this was before the Moneyball revolution changed baseball and began to seep into other sports; before the rise of fans who began to rethink the conventional wisdom; before those fans began tracking every play with such high levels of precision that teams began asking them for data. This was before Burke sat down in front of his laptop four years ago, in a hotel room in Karachi, Pakistan, and attacked the fourth-down conundrum to create what would become a New Age blueprint for winning games.
On the surface Burke couldn’t have been a more unlikely creator of one of the biggest innovations in football statistics. A Navy pilot turned weapons and tactics expert for a military contractor, he’d only recently heard of the godfather of sports analytics, Bill James. But he was an obsessive football fan who knew the power of numbers; in combat in Iraq between the Gulf Wars he’d put his life in the hands of analytical techniques and probabilistic calculations and come out alive. Holed up in a hotel during a three-week work trip to Pakistan in September 2008 (“We could never leave the hotel [out of danger],” he says; “I had a lot of free time”), Burke hit on the idea of building a statistical model that would yield the odds of a team’s winning a game in every on-field situation—every down-and-distance from every position on the field, for every point margin. Win Probability would tell a team what it should do based on the numbers, a data set that has since grown to more than 3,000 actual games.
Nothing gets passions going more (outside of Tim Tebow) than the stats-geeks-vs-the-world debate. Raheem Morris famously quipped, "Stats are for losers," and then proceeded to get fired. Others like Bill Belichick have fully embraced them. You may even remember during Josh McDaniels's brief tenure, he gave a very statistically-based answer as to why he always deferred the opening kickoff--studies had shown that there was a slight edge to be gained in number of possessions. Of course, like Morris, he too was fired.
So who's right? No matter where you come down on the debate, you'll probably find this SI piece interesting. It reads part history, part statistics, and part biography of the guys who decided to make football statistics part of their very core.
Personally, and I know I'm not alone here at IAOFM, when given the chance to combine the tape with advanced metrics like Burke's, we try and take it (and believe me, I love running regressions as much as the next stat geek). This was really brought home to us last year after watching how often Haloti Ngata dominated his opponents with god-like swim moves in order to hammer a runner in the backfield. Since there's no-beaten-by-swim-move stat, the individual performance would be logged to the running back (and his average yards per carry).
One thing's for certain, though: the debate over advanced NFL statistics will continue to rage in an NFL city near you.
Happy Thursday, friends. I happened to notice in the Lard the other day that Jeff Legwold had written a stupid article for the Denver Post. Shocker, I know.
TJ told me recently that Leggy is like 5 foot 4, so every time I think of him now, I picture a Hobbit. And really, how can a dude who is that short have a nickname like Leggy? Shouldn’t it be Stumpy or something?
We ponder only the most important questions at IAOFM. You’re welcome.
This is the article that I’m referring to, and it’s the one in which Jacob Tamme is shouted out by Peyton Manning as a key to the Broncos offense. There are two things that I find completely silly about it, and if you follow me over the jump, I’ll tell you what they are.
And it’s not all about running. The other reason – maybe the major reason – the NFL is now catching on is that they now see the effect these schemes can have on passing. When the quarterback is a threat to run, defenses must stack the line of scrimmage, opening up passing lanes and one-on-one matchups for wide receivers outside. “You do read-option, read-option, read-option and then get them to play seven or eight in the box and you’ve got so many variations of plays and passes you can run off that,” Cam Newton said recently [source]. Indeed, Mike Shanahan thinks that play-action which fakes a zone-read, whether from the pistol or other shotgun sets, is actually better than traditional under-center play-action because of the increased influence it has on linebackers and safeties looking for the run. “Not a little bit more,” said Shanahan. “A lot more.” [source]
There was, however, one more argument against these ideas ever taking hold in the NFL; Griffin was injured and didn’t finish the Baltimore game referenced above (though his injury came on a scramble on a pass play, not a zone read). Critics argue that these attacks create an increased risk of injury to quarterbacks. That is a real concern, and if anything can short circuit these changes to the NFL game, it is this.
I don’t have a firm rebuttal, and to my knowledge there have been no comprehensive studies done at any level of football that measures the risk to quarterbacks in the concepts, so we’re left with anecdotes to judge by. Yet even if it is true – no, especially if it is true – the issue is not really about these spread concepts at all. All quarterbacks – and all NFL players, really – are constantly at risk of gruesome injury. Pocket passers like Carson Palmer, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning have missed entire seasons because of injuries sustained while standing in the pocket, and quarterbacks are constantly hit while or just after releasing the ball, a far more vulnerable position than being hit while sliding following a 5-yard gain behind a lead blocker. If the argument is that the scheme is too dangerous to risk injury to Robert Griffin III, then the real argument isn’t to abolish these offenses, it’s to abolish football. That’s another discussion, but if that’s the actual concern then we have much bigger problems than the Pistol Zone Bluff.
Doug and I had an interesting discussion today after reading this excellent story. Where does Brock Osweiler fit into this, post-Brady, post-Manning future? Although Osweiler ran the pistol extensively in college and he's pretty mobile for a guy 6-8, he's not on the same level when it comes to running the football as, say Colin Kaepernick, Russell Wilson, RG3, Cam Newton, or even our guilty little pleasure, Tim Tebow. Or will the next great pocket passer (Andrew Luck perhaps) always trump the others? Will there ever be another great pocket passer in the traditional sense?
Stay tuned. The next few years should determine the answer. As Brown notes in the story, if Griffin and the rest prove durable, change is here to stay.
Film Room: Vikings-Packers
Chunk plays are tough to come by against Denver. Not only is Denver’s linebacker corps fast and strong, but the defensive line might be the best in the league at holding ground against double teams. Derek Wolfe and Justin Bannan are terrific anchors near the B- and C-gaps. Further inside, Kevin Vickerson amplifies his 300-pound strength with very good initial quickness. The Chiefs have a lot of size up front, but don’t be surprised if they struggle getting movement in the ground game this week.
Wolfe is under team control through the 2015 season. But Bannan, who will turn 34 next offseason, and Vickerson, who turns 30 on Jan. 8, will be unrestricted free agents after having accepted 2012 salaries that are fractions* of what they had originally agreed to with Denver.
Our thinking remains that the Broncos will use a high pick on a tackle come April; even if the team is happy with the performance of Bannan and Big Vick, it must account for the advancing age of the two players.
Broncos coach John Fox not concerned with what oddsmakers say
With his team preparing for the regular-season finale Sunday against Kansas City, Broncos coach John Fox discounted reports that Las Vegas oddsmakers have now made Denver (12-3) the favorite to win the Super Bowl.
“I grew up in San Diego,” Fox said. “And we went to the horse tracks a lot. There are a lot of favorites, and it doesn’t work out like that all the time. You have to earn this between the lines. (Being the favorite) won’t affect our attitude or mindset moving forward.”
Even if we knew for a fact that the Broncos were the best team in the NFL, that doesn't mean they'd actually win the Super Bowl. Why? Because the game is only played once, and the path to get there is a single-elimination tournament.
This is important to remember when looking at win probability data like that provided by Brian Burke. If his figures say the Broncos are an 87% favorite this week against the Chiefs, that doesn't necessarily predict a blowout, nor does it mean Denver will definitely emerge victorious. Rather, it means that, in theory, if these two teams were to face off 100 times (more if we are looking at the law of large numbers), the Broncos would figure to win 87 times.
So, if an upset occurs, it's not necessarily that Burke's math is wrong - it's just that one of those 13 unlikely outcomes (of 100) has arisen.
Veterans like Peyton Manning, Elvis Dumervil keep Broncos in check
Make no mistake: Manning casts a long shadow in the locker room. He’s a future Hall of Famer, one of the most accomplished players in the league’s history, and he plays the most important position on any NFL team chasing trophies — quarterback. He also is a vocal presence in how the team runs its offense on gameday and prepares through the week.
But other players, as well as the coaches, also say he is the hardest worker and the most prepared player on the field each week. When he demands a lot from others, he already has made those demands on himself.
I have to admit - earlier during his career, I thought Manning was vastly overrated - that he was a selfish, overly demonstrative team sport athlete - a modern Dan Marino, or football's Alex Rodriguez.
But having paid him much closer attention over the past several years, and now, watched his every play with Denver, and seen how he interacts with his teammates, it's more than apparent that Peyton is worthy of the intense praise he receives.
Yesterday and today, there has been a collective gasp across Broncos Country that the Chiefs--yes, the lowly and wretched Kansas City Chiefs, whom Denver will host on Sunday to close out the regular season--placed five players on the AFC Pro Bowl team.
The thinking seems to be that a 2-13 team can't possibly deserve such honors. After all, if their players were any good, they'd have a better record. While there's certainly some truth in that line of thinking, and the Pro Bowl has largely become a game for divas, as they say in Spain, "no sé qué," which, roughly translated, means "Kansas City has good barbeque." In other words, it's not always so crazy when you scarf meat from bone and get into the details.
Before we take a look at whom the Chiefs actually put into the Pro Bowl, though, we should recognize that a lot of things influence a team's record. Just because the Chiefs are 2-13 and the Broncos 12-3, it's not necessarily always a reflection of better play at specific positions.