Rumor Mongering: Mini Shanny or Son of Marty to the Chiefs?

Five NFL coaches most likely to get fired and their potential replacements
sports.yahoo.com

Kansas City Chiefs – Romeo Crennel deserves a medal for what he has been through this season, particularly the murder-suicide involving Jovan Belcher. Sadly, his work as head coach fell far short of acceptable.
Possible replacements – Bruce Arians, Jim Caldwell, Ray Horton (Cardinals defensive coordinator), Jay Gruden (Bengals offensive coordinator), Kyle Shanahan (Redskins offensive coordinator), Brian Schottenheimer (Rams offensive coordinator).

Jason Cole is hearing that Mike McCoy may be a candidate for the Buffalo gig, along with Mini Shanny. Although it would be strange for Kyle to end up coaching the Chiefs, it's nothing like the possibility we'd all pondered in 2009 of Mike himself jumping straight from Denver to KC. Wherever Mini Shanny ends up, if anywhere, one has to figure he'll bring Chris Simms (who's currently a New England assistant) along with him, what with their coordinated tattoos and all.

As for Son of Marty, how someone with an offensive resume like Brian could be in consideration for a head gig is beyond us. But, bring it on. John Elway would surely be happy to torture Marty's kid just like he did his dad.

Status updates for Holliday, Porter, Kuper, and McGahee

Broncos' Trindon Holliday doubtful
espn.go.com

Kick returner Trindon Holliday is doubtful for the Denver Broncos’ season finale against Kansas City because of a sprained ankle. The injury has sidelined him all week and prevented him from working on ways to cut down on fumbling.

Cornerback Tracy Porter (concussion) was ruled out for Sunday. He was injured last week just three snaps into his first game since Oct. 7. He had been sidelined after experiencing symptoms similar to those he had before a seizure during training camp. “That’s so unfortunate because he’s been waiting for this opportunity to get back in there. And I just hope he’s OK. I think he will be but only time will tell,” cornerback Champ Bailey said.

Right guard Chris Kuper is 50-50 for Sunday after participating on a limited basis for the second straight day. He’s been sidelined with a sprained left ankle and migraines.  Fox said he wasn’t worried about Kuper’s availability heading into the playoffs.  “He practiced for the first time yesterday and then today. I think he’s making good progress,” Fox said. “He’s been out for a little bit. We’re just going to make sure he’s ready to play football and we’ll make that decision day to day.”

Fox said he was pleased with the progress of running back Willis McGahee, who went on recallable IR after tearing the medial collateral ligament in his right knee Nov. 18 when he was tackled low by San Diego cornerback Quentin Jammer.

A few quick thoughts:

  • No big deal on Holliday.  That's why the Broncos have Jim Leonhard.  The bigger question is how Holliday will be mentally after a long layoff in the playoffs.
  • The loss of Porter won't change things much, since he's been out a lot of the year.  On a personal level, Porter has been the victim of some bizarre and unlucky breaks.
  • Kuper won't be 100% until he gets to the offseason, so if the big guy can go, let him go.
  • McGahee will gain three yards on third down no matter what if he's available for the AFC Championship
  • I've never liked Quentin Jammer anyway, now I hate him even more.

Blow your mind watching Peyton Manning’s highlights as a Denver Bronco

Thanks to Zachary Gonzales for knitting together this quilt of beastliness.

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Cutler defenders can now add oldest excuse in the book

The Seahawks Now Have Two Victories Thanks To Bad Calls
kissingsuzykolber.uproxx.com

In the past three weeks, Seattle has certainly proven itself a team to be reckoned with as the postseason approaches. That said, without the benefit of some questionable officiating, the Seahawks would be entering Week 17 at 8-7, trailing both the Vikings and the Bears for a Wild Card berth, rather than already having clinched.

It’s somewhat petty that a member of the Bears organization leaked to the media what is supposed to be a confidential communication between the team and the league just because it vindicated the Bears’ gripes. So it’s safe to assume Jay Cutler loves it.

This KSK piece is a better repackage of the original Chicago Tribune story that basically lets us know that the league regularly has confidential communications with teams about disputed calls; further, that the league admits when they're wrong.  In this case, the Bears wanted their fans to know they got screwed as a pre-emptive strike in case they don't make the playoffs.

Does anyone think the Seahawks would not beat the Bears right now?  Additionally, there are calls that have probably gone the other way to balance the scales. 

And if not, it's Jay Cutler, and we're cool with it.

STDL: Sunday a foregone conclusion?

So, the Chiefs suck, the Broncos are well-rounded and still improving, and may be the best team in the NFL.

The kickoff time for Pats/Dolphins has been shifted to 4:25pm ET, in order to coincide with Broncos/Chiefs, and ensure that Denver has something to play for.

Should be a blowout, right?

Probably, but the Broncos were supposed to have emerged from Kansas City with more than the eight-point victory they did a month ago.

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Incentives are rare reason to care about Pro Bowl snubs

Champ Bailey, Julius Peppers top list of NFL Pro Bowl bonuses
sports.yahoo.com

As noted on Thursday by ESPN’s Adam Schefter, some of the 84 players selected for the AFC and NFC Pro Bowl rosters earlier this week earned financial incentives by being “Original Ballot” selections for the annual All-Star game in Hawaii.

Denver Broncos cornerback Champ Bailey earned an additional $250,000 in his contract when he was named to his 12th Pro Bowl.

All week, we've been downplaying the importance of the Pro Bowl and whether certain Broncos got snubbed, since the selection process is so heavily flawed.

But when a player like Demaryius Thomas or Wesley Woodyard misses out on a potential incentive, that's a different story. At the least, we can hope that Thomas's electric season has triggered statistical milestone-based incentives, and that Woodyard has some playing time escalators in his deal.

Homefield Advantage still mulling over potential ski trip to Denver

Denver--With Week 17 almost in the books, Homefield Advantage is still weighing his options.

Faced with the prospect of Houston, Denver, or New England, the elusive recluse, who has vacationed in New England during the last two years, could only say: "I've not made any decision yet."

It's thought that the Houston Texans may have the inside edge due to Houston's mild winter climate, but Denver's ski slopes could also be a deciding factor.  It's unlikely, though, that Homefield Advantage would want a third straight trip to the bitter wind and cold of New England.  By Friday morning, he wasn't giving anything away.

"I love Aspen," he said.  "The girls on the slopes are pretty stacked, if you know what I mean.  And I've not seen Denver since I freebased some NoDoz on gameday with Mark Brunell in '96.  But, listen, I also love moon rocks, too.  Isn't that where Kennedy was shot?  Wait, is Dallas out of this thing yet?"

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BMarsh: Hating the Packers > making the playoffs

Brandon Marshall won’t cheer for Packers even though Bears need them to win
larrybrownsports.com

The Chicago Bears may not control their own destiny to secure a playoff spot this weekend, but their formula is fairly simple. If the Bears defeat the Detroit Lions and the Green Bay Packers beat the Minnesota Vikings, Chicago slides into one of two wild card spots.

“I’m not cheering for anybody but the Bears,” Marshall said Thursday according to Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune. “Yeah, that’s how it is. We put ourselves in this position and right now it could be a good position. You never know how things will work out. But all we can do is beat Detroit and sit back and have a cup of coffee and see what happens at that afternoon game.”

We even have a specific roast picked out for Brandon's Packers/Vikings accompaniment - Fair Trade Certified™ Italian Roast - the sweetness of doing nothing, indeed.

Must have been the LOLJets’ cook Lard

Happy Friday, Broncos fans! So, turns out that the UT™ didn't actually demand out of the LOLJets Wildcat package, thus preserving his reputation as someone who would never tell a lie. Neat little trick by the Tebow camp:

One last word on what was effectively a Tim Tebow mutiny. A source close to the situation explained that Tebow didn't say directly to coach Rex Ryan that he would no longer play in the wildcat after learning he was being passed over for Greg McElroy. But this fact was definitely conveyed to the Jets from a member of the Tebow camp -- with Tebow's knowledge -- to the Jets.

Tebow is a good human being. There's no question about that, but there's also no question this was blatant insubordination. It doesn't matter if Tebow later came to his senses and told Ryan he would do whatever the team needed. It was too late.

If almost any other player had pulled a stunt like this, they'd be pilloried by fans. The same should happen to Tebow.

Yeah, we know - Timmy played hard for the Broncos in 2011. Big whoop. Does that mean the other 52 guys on the roster didn't?

Why was it okay to call all summer long for D.J. Williams's head while excusing everything from the UT™? Did D.J. - who was the team's leading tackler and third-leading sack man - not play hard last year too? Can anyone really be sure the Broncos would have made the playoffs without D.J.?

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The growing influence of stat geeks

Blessed Are The Geeks ...
sportsillustrated.cnn.com

There was a time, not so long ago, when teams were smarter than everyone else. A time when Football Men had all the answers—theirs was a game with as vast a knowledge gap between the insiders and the outsiders as any other sport. But this was before the Moneyball revolution changed baseball and began to seep into other sports; before the rise of fans who began to rethink the conventional wisdom; before those fans began tracking every play with such high levels of precision that teams began asking them for data. This was before Burke sat down in front of his laptop four years ago, in a hotel room in Karachi, Pakistan, and attacked the fourth-down conundrum to create what would become a New Age blueprint for winning games.

On the surface Burke couldn’t have been a more unlikely creator of one of the biggest innovations in football statistics. A Navy pilot turned weapons and tactics expert for a military contractor, he’d only recently heard of the godfather of sports analytics, Bill James. But he was an obsessive football fan who knew the power of numbers; in combat in Iraq between the Gulf Wars he’d put his life in the hands of analytical techniques and probabilistic calculations and come out alive. Holed up in a hotel during a three-week work trip to Pakistan in September 2008 (“We could never leave the hotel [out of danger],” he says; “I had a lot of free time”), Burke hit on the idea of building a statistical model that would yield the odds of a team’s winning a game in every on-field situation—every down-and-distance from every position on the field, for every point margin. Win Probability would tell a team what it should do based on the numbers, a data set that has since grown to more than 3,000 actual games.

Nothing gets passions going more (outside of Tim Tebow) than the stats-geeks-vs-the-world debate.  Raheem Morris famously quipped, "Stats are for losers," and then proceeded to get fired.  Others like Bill Belichick have fully embraced them.  You may even remember during Josh McDaniels's brief tenure, he gave a very statistically-based answer as to why he always deferred the opening kickoff--studies had shown that there was a slight edge to be gained in number of possessions.  Of course, like Morris, he too was fired.

So who's right?  No matter where you come down on the debate, you'll probably find this SI piece interesting.  It reads part history, part statistics, and part biography of the guys who decided to make football statistics part of their very core.

Personally, and I know I'm not alone here at IAOFM, when given the chance to combine the tape with advanced metrics like Burke's, we try and take it (and believe me, I love running regressions as much as the next stat geek).  This was really brought home to us last year after watching how often Haloti Ngata dominated his opponents with god-like swim moves in order to hammer a runner in the backfield.  Since there's no-beaten-by-swim-move stat, the individual performance would be logged to the running back (and his average yards per carry).

One thing's for certain, though: the debate over advanced NFL statistics will continue to rage in an NFL city near you.

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